Subscribe to one of our Premium Packages today, and get your picks sent to you!
Click the link to Subscribe…

I can’t wait until the start of the regular season in NHL! Besides baseball, this is my favorite sport.

I’m a gambler so I have no favorites. My only concern is who will cover, but hey… I love the Flyers!!!

Is the bet worth making? This is the most important thing that you need to know.

The formula below answers this question! Simply put… As long as the answer to this is a positive number, there’s value.

(Chances of winning * Amount won) + (Chances of losing * -Amount Wagered)

^{Introduction:}

Knowing how to establish a win probability in sports betting is important. It is important because it gives you a realistic look at your chances of winning a particular bet.

In this post, we’ll go over how to establish a win probability by using team scoring, both offense and defense in order for us to get an estimated score. In addition to this, we will also learn how to then use this information to get an estimated win probability.

How to establish a win probability in sports betting.

For this example, I have chosen Football as the sport.

Gather data

In order for us to begin, we first need to know what sport we’re trying to predict a win probability for. In this case, we’ll use American Football as our example sport.
A good website to gather you data from for football is PRO FOOTBALL REFERENCE. They have all the stats you need.

We want to get the number of points scored and allowed per game for each team.

TEAM A (PF 28) (PA 14) TEAM B (PF 20) (PA 34)

After that we’re going to attempt to figure out the average points between TEAM A’s offense (PF) and TEAM B’s defense (PA). To do this, we take TEAM A’s (PF) 28, and TEAM B’s (PA) 34 add them together, then divide them by 2.

The formula should look like this:

TEAM A (28 + 34) / 2 = 31 TEAM B (20 + 14) / 2 = 17

ESTIMATED SCORE

TEAM A 31 TEAM B 17

Now that we have established our estimated score, we’re now ready to convert this into a win probability. Then we can then use this win probability and compare it to the bookie’s. To do this, we divide TEAM A’s estimated points by the total number of points in the game. 31+17= 48

31 / (31 + 17) = 64.59% 17 / (17 + 31) = 35.41%
TEAM A TEAM B

Closing:

In conclusion, we have just established an estimated win probability for a football game. We can now compare our estimate to what the bookie is offering to see if our chances of winning are greater or less than what he’s offering.

But before we place our bets, we must convert the line (odds) into a break-even percentage, and then to an implied win probability. Learn how to do this in our How to convert Line Odds into break-even percentage, and How to convert Line Odds into an implied win Probability.

Thursday September 19, 2024

South Alabama Jaguars @ Appalachian State Mountaineers

Projected score:

South Alabama 40

Appalachian State 20

Final Score:

South Alabama 48

Appalachian State 14

Welcome to WordPress. This is your first post. Edit or delete it, then start writing!

At Odds Slayer, we have mastered the art of building sports models that accurately predict winners. In this post, we unveil the secrets behind our success and share how our advanced algorithms analyze data to identify winning opportunities. From gathering historical data to using cutting-edge statistical techniques, our models have achieved remarkable accuracy rates. Join us as we dive into the world of sports prediction and discover how you can leverage our predictions to increase your chances of success in sports betting. Get ready to slay the odds with Odds Slayer.